Introduction
U.S. logistics costs are coming under renewed pressure as diesel prices remain near record levels and transportation companies face a complicated capacity environment. The latest data shows how quickly fuel has become a major cost factor for trucking, while freight rates and driver availability are adding to the uncertainty across the U.S. logistics network.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a national on-highway diesel average of $6.382 per gallon for the week of September 28, 2026, down from $6.529 the previous week but dramatically above the $3.754 recorded on September 29, 2025.
The result is a transportation market where the cost of moving a truck, container or pallet can change significantly before the underlying freight itself changes.
Background and Context
Diesel is one of the most important operating expenses in American freight transportation. Trucks move a substantial share of domestic goods, from food and industrial components to retail merchandise and construction materials.
The latest diesel shock has been particularly significant.
According to The Wall Street Journal, diesel prices have risen 77% over the past year, while trucking expenses have reached their highest levels since the pandemic. The publication also reported that freight operators are dealing with driver availability challenges and increased regulatory enforcement affecting the commercial driving workforce.
EIA’s weekly data provides another view of the price movement. The national diesel average increased from $3.754 per gallon on September 29, 2025, to $6.382 on September 28, 2026, an increase of roughly 70%.
That difference in percentage reflects different measurement dates and methodologies, but both sources point to the same broader trend: diesel is substantially more expensive than it was a year ago.
The increase matters because fuel costs do not stay inside the trucking industry. Transportation is embedded in the cost of manufacturing, agriculture, retail, construction and distribution.
Latest Update: Why U.S. Logistics Costs Are Rising
Diesel has become the immediate pressure point
The latest EIA figure puts U.S. on-highway diesel at $6.382 per gallon for September 28. The previous week’s average was $6.529, showing that prices have eased slightly from the recent peak while remaining historically elevated.
For trucking companies, higher fuel costs affect every loaded and empty mile.
A carrier can respond through fuel surcharges, higher contract rates, route optimization or changes to equipment utilization. But those mechanisms do not necessarily recover costs immediately, particularly for smaller carriers and owner-operators.
That creates a difficult pricing equation:
Higher diesel costs → higher operating expenses → pressure for higher freight rates → higher transportation costs for shippers → potential downstream price increases.
Freight rates are also showing capacity pressure
Fuel is not the only factor influencing transportation costs.
DAT Freight & Analytics reported that national truckload spot rates experienced unusually large declines in August. The average van spot linehaul rate fell 20 cents to $2.19 per mile, while reefer fell to $2.61 and flatbed to $2.70. DAT described the August decline as the steepest July-to-August pullback in its 16-year rate history.
Yet the picture becomes more complicated when looking at year-over-year pricing.
DAT’s September trend data showed van spot rates 42.4% higher year over year, flatbed spot rates 42.2% higher, and reefer spot rates 40.7% higher. Fuel prices in the same dataset were up 46% year over year.
In other words, a seasonal monthly decline does not necessarily mean transportation has become inexpensive.
Driver availability adds another layer
The trucking workforce is also being affected by federal enforcement.
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration said more than 28,000 drivers had been placed out of service for English Language Proficiency violations since June 2025. The agency has also intensified scrutiny of commercial driver’s license issuance and training providers.
FMCSA’s final rule on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses limits eligibility to certain foreign-domiciled individuals with specified employment-based nonimmigrant status.
These actions are separate from fuel prices, but they can affect the available pool of commercial drivers and therefore the capacity equation for freight companies.
It is important to distinguish this from a simple claim that the entire U.S. trucking market is experiencing a single nationwide driver shortage. Current conditions vary by carrier, equipment type, geography and freight lane.
Expert Insights and Analysis
The most important point for logistics managers is that fuel is interacting with several other variables at the same time.
1. Fuel surcharges cannot solve every cost problem
Fuel surcharges are designed to help carriers recover changes in fuel expenses. But the underlying rate structure still depends on capacity, demand, mileage, equipment and lane balance.
If fuel rises faster than surcharge mechanisms adjust, carriers can experience margin pressure.
2. Freight rates are becoming increasingly lane-specific
National averages can hide major differences between individual markets.
DAT’s September data shows that truckload pricing can remain elevated even when freight volumes soften. In July, for example, DAT reported that contract van and reefer rates posted their largest June-to-July increases on record despite declining freight volumes.
That suggests capacity availability can sometimes have a larger effect on pricing than freight volume alone.
3. Rail and intermodal transportation can gain attention
High diesel prices can change the economics of different transportation modes.
The Washington Post reported that record diesel prices have helped shift some freight toward rail, with intermodal traffic reaching strong levels as shippers look for alternatives to trucking.
That does not mean rail can simply replace trucking. Trucking remains essential for first-mile and last-mile movements and for many time-sensitive shipments.
But prolonged fuel inflation can encourage companies to reconsider modal strategies.
4. Smaller carriers face particular exposure
Large fleets can sometimes negotiate fuel programs, optimize routes across thousands of shipments and spread fixed costs across larger networks.
Smaller carriers and owner-operators may have fewer options.
When fuel prices jump rapidly, cash flow becomes especially important because fuel has to be purchased before transportation revenue is fully collected.
Broader Implications for U.S. Businesses
The impact of higher U.S. logistics costs extends well beyond trucking companies.
Manufacturers may face higher inbound transportation expenses for raw materials and components.
Retailers may encounter higher costs for moving inventory between distribution centers and stores.
Food companies can face additional expenses because agricultural products often require multiple transportation legs before reaching consumers.
Construction companies can also feel the effect through the transportation of building materials, machinery and fuel-intensive equipment.
For supply chain managers, the current environment puts greater emphasis on:
- Transportation cost forecasting
- Fuel surcharge management
- Carrier diversification
- Route optimization
- Intermodal alternatives
- Inventory positioning
- Regional distribution
- Real-time freight visibility
For more coverage of technology, logistics and supply chain developments, an internal link opportunity would be: Logistics Technology and Supply Chain Innovation.
Related History and Comparable Transportation Shocks
The U.S. logistics industry has repeatedly experienced periods when fuel prices transformed transportation economics.
The major oil shocks of the 1970s changed freight economics and pushed businesses to think more carefully about energy efficiency.
The 2008 oil-price spike created another major challenge for trucking and aviation.
The pandemic created a different kind of transportation shock. Freight demand surged, ports became congested and truckload capacity tightened. Transportation rates subsequently moved dramatically higher.
The current situation has a different combination of factors.
Today’s market includes:
- Elevated diesel prices
- Changing freight volumes
- Capacity adjustments
- Regulatory changes affecting commercial drivers
- Increased interest in rail and intermodal freight
- Greater use of transportation-management technology
That combination makes the current environment more complex than a simple fuel-price story.
What Happens Next?
The next few weeks will be important for freight operators.
Diesel prices
The biggest variable is whether diesel prices remain near current levels or begin moving lower.
EIA data shows the national average fell from $6.529 on September 21 to $6.382 on September 28. Whether that becomes a sustained decline will depend on fuel supply, crude oil prices, refining conditions and global energy markets.
Truckload pricing
DAT’s data will provide an important indicator of whether elevated spot and contract rates continue into the fall freight season.
Driver capacity
Continued FMCSA enforcement could change the available commercial driving workforce in individual markets. Carriers and shippers will need to watch whether capacity becomes tighter on specific lanes or equipment types.
Alternative transportation
If diesel remains expensive, companies may accelerate their use of intermodal rail, route optimization software, alternative-fuel vehicles and other transportation technologies.
Conclusion
The latest numbers show that U.S. logistics costs are being shaped by more than one factor.
Diesel remains the most immediate pressure point, with the national average at $6.382 per gallon as of September 28, according to EIA. Freight pricing is also elevated compared with a year earlier, while changes to commercial-driver enforcement are influencing the available trucking workforce.
For shippers, manufacturers and retailers, the key issue is not simply whether fuel prices rise or fall next week. It is how fuel, freight capacity, driver availability and transportation demand interact across the entire logistics network.
If elevated diesel prices persist, transportation planning is likely to become an even bigger part of supply chain strategy.
FAQ
1. Why are U.S. logistics costs rising?
U.S. logistics costs are being pressured by elevated diesel prices, freight-rate changes, capacity conditions and changes affecting the commercial-driver workforce.
2. How much is diesel in the U.S. right now?
The EIA reported an average U.S. on-highway diesel price of $6.382 per gallon for the week of September 28, 2026.
3. Are trucking rates also increasing?
Truckload pricing varies by equipment and market. DAT reported that August spot rates declined sharply month over month, but its September trend data showed national spot rates substantially above year-earlier levels.
4. How do higher diesel prices affect consumers?
Higher diesel prices can increase transportation expenses for manufacturers, retailers, agriculture and distributors. Companies may absorb some costs or pass some of them through to customers.
5. Is there a driver shortage in the United States?
Driver availability varies across companies, regions and freight markets. Federal enforcement has also removed thousands of drivers from service for compliance violations, creating additional capacity considerations for trucking operators.
6. Can rail reduce trucking costs?
Rail can provide an alternative for certain long-distance and intermodal shipments, particularly when trucking fuel costs are high. However, trucking remains essential for many first-mile, last-mile and time-sensitive movements.
Sources & References
- Retail Prices for Diesel, U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Energy Information Administration diesel price data - Soaring Transport Costs Spread Through U.S. Economy, The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal report - DAT: Spot van rate falls 20 cents in steepest August pullback on record
DAT Freight & Analytics report - U.S. Transportation Secretary Duffy, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Mullin, White House Fraud Task Force, & Top U.S. Attorneys Launch Historic Interagency Effort to Crack Down on Fraud in Trucking Industry
FMCSA enforcement update - DAT Trucking Industry Trends
DAT national trucking market data
