Introduction
The US supply chain 2026 picture is changing at the road level. New analysis from Geotab shows that regional truck trips increased 3.8% over three quarters, while regional vehicle miles traveled increased 5.4%. At the same time, long-haul trucking remained relatively steady.
The findings come from Geotab’s new Health of U.S. Supply Chain report, which analyzes aggregated telematics data from more than six million connected commercial vehicles.
The numbers point to a freight network that is not simply moving more goods. It is changing where and how those goods move.
More activity is appearing closer to end markets, while last-mile delivery networks are handling more trips over shorter distances.
That has implications for warehouses, regional distribution centers, trucking fleets, transportation technology and the way companies design their supply chains.
Background and Context
Trucking remains central to the U.S. freight system.
The Federal Highway Administration’s latest national freight data says trucks carried 13.1 billion tons of freight in 2023, representing 65% of domestic freight by weight. Trucks also carried freight worth about $18.3 trillion, representing 72% of freight value.
That makes changes in truck activity particularly useful for understanding the broader supply chain.
Geotab and its research division, Altitude by Geotab, analyzed commercial vehicle activity across three consecutive quarters:
- Q4 2025
- Q1 2026
- Q2 2026
The analysis examined five transportation categories:
- Long-haul
- Regional
- Hub-and-spoke
- Last mile
- Drayage
It also looked at major interstate corridors including I-10, I-35, I-80/90 and I-95, as well as Los Angeles, Denver, New York and Atlanta and the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach and New York/New Jersey.
The methodology is important because this is not a traditional economic forecast. It is an analysis of actual commercial vehicle movement.
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Regional trucking is growing faster than long-haul
The clearest signal in Geotab’s report is the increase in regional freight activity.
Regional truck trips increased 3.8%, while regional vehicle miles traveled rose 5.4% across the three-quarter study period. Long-haul activity remained relatively steady.
That does not mean long-haul freight is disappearing.
Instead, the data suggests the long-distance freight backbone remains active while another layer of transportation closer to consumers is expanding.
This distinction matters.
A product can travel thousands of miles from a manufacturer or port and still require multiple regional movements before reaching its final customer.
The growth in regional trucking could therefore reflect more activity around distribution centers, inventory positioning and local market fulfillment.
What the regional increase could mean
Geotab says the increase in regional trips and miles points to more demand and inventory activity closer to end markets.
There are several ways companies can respond to this kind of environment.
They can position inventory closer to customers.
They can operate more regional distribution facilities.
They can use smaller delivery territories.
They can increase delivery frequency while reducing the distance of individual trips.
Or they can combine several of these strategies.
The data itself does not establish a single cause for the regional growth, so these should be viewed as possible operational explanations rather than conclusions from the report.
Last-mile networks are getting denser
Another important signal comes from last-mile transportation.
Geotab found that door-to-door trip volume increased continuously from Q4 2025 across the four cities studied. At the same time, miles per trip declined.
That combination is significant.
More trips combined with shorter average distances suggests logistics networks are becoming more localized.
Instead of simply sending more vehicles farther, operators appear to be handling more deliveries through shorter routes.
This can make route planning and fleet utilization increasingly important.
For an urban delivery operator, reducing miles per trip can potentially improve vehicle utilization, fuel efficiency and driver productivity.
Hub-and-spoke utilization is also changing
The hub-and-spoke category showed another interesting pattern.
Geotab says capacity declined following a normal post-holiday dip and recovery, but in-service utilization increased to a three-quarter high of 84.3%.
That suggests operators were using available capacity more intensively.
For supply-chain managers, utilization can be just as important as the number of vehicles available.
A fleet with fewer vehicles but higher utilization can potentially move a large amount of freight without adding equivalent capacity.
This becomes especially relevant when transportation costs, labor availability or equipment prices are elevated.
Expert Insights or Analysis
The most interesting part of the US supply chain 2026 story is that resilience is increasingly becoming a question of network design.
A supply chain does not need to eliminate every disruption to become more resilient.
It can instead reduce the impact of disruptions by having multiple routes, regional inventory, alternative transportation modes and better visibility into freight movement.
Geotab’s report provides evidence of some of these network-level changes, but it should not be interpreted as proof that every U.S. company is regionalizing its supply chain.
The analysis covers selected corridors, cities and ports, and its metrics are normalized per vehicle per active day. Geotab also cautions that the data represents aggregate historical activity and is not business or economic advice.
Long-haul remains the backbone
Despite the rise in regional activity, long-haul trucking remained steady.
That is important because regionalization is not necessarily replacing long-distance transportation.
Instead, the two systems can work together.
A container may arrive at a port, move by rail or long-haul truck toward a distribution area and then transfer into regional transportation for final distribution.
The U.S. freight network is therefore becoming more layered rather than simply shifting from one model to another.
The FHWA describes trucking as the backbone of domestic freight movement, with trucks accounting for 65% of U.S. freight by weight and 72% by value in its 2023 data.
Regional freight can change warehouse strategy
The growth of regional transportation also matters for warehouse operators.
If companies want inventory closer to consumers, they may need more strategically positioned distribution facilities.
That can mean:
- More regional distribution centers
- Smaller fulfillment facilities
- More inventory positioned near major metropolitan areas
- Shorter delivery routes
- Higher delivery frequency
- Greater reliance on transportation-management technology
The goal is not necessarily to build more warehouses everywhere.
Instead, companies can use demand data to determine where inventory needs to be positioned.
Broader Implications
The shift toward regional freight has implications across the entire U.S. supply chain.
1. Warehouses could become more strategically important
Distribution centers increasingly serve as the connection between long-haul transportation and local delivery.
As regional trips increase, warehouse location becomes an important transportation decision.
A facility positioned near a large consumer market can reduce the distance required for the final stages of delivery.
2. Last-mile technology becomes more valuable
When delivery routes become shorter and more frequent, companies need detailed visibility into every trip.
Fleet-management platforms can track:
- Vehicle location
- Route efficiency
- Delivery times
- Driver behavior
- Fuel consumption
- Vehicle utilization
- Maintenance requirements
That creates a large data layer around physical freight movement.
3. Regionalization does not eliminate long-haul freight
The Geotab data is especially useful because long-haul activity remained steady while regional activity increased.
This suggests companies should not think of regional freight and long-haul freight as competing systems.
They are different layers of the same network.
Long-haul transportation connects major production regions, ports and distribution hubs.
Regional transportation connects those hubs with nearby markets.
Last-mile transportation then connects distribution points with individual customers.
4. Rail can absorb some port growth
The report also contains an important finding around port transportation.
Geotab says the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex recorded its strongest month of 2026, approximately 12% above the previous year, while truck activity remained flat. The company says this points to rail absorbing some of the growth.
That is a useful reminder that freight growth does not always translate directly into more truck traffic.
Shippers can shift between transportation modes depending on cost, capacity, distance and service requirements.
5. Connected vehicles are becoming supply-chain sensors
Perhaps the biggest technology story is the data itself.
Geotab analyzed activity from more than six million connected commercial vehicles and says its dataset represents approximately 12% of U.S. commercial traffic.
That creates an enormous source of real-world information.
Traditional economic indicators can tell companies what happened after the fact.
Connected-vehicle data can show how vehicles are actually moving through the freight network.
That distinction is becoming increasingly valuable for logistics planning.
Internal link suggestion: How Real-Time Data Is Changing U.S. Supply Chain Management
Transportation Data and AI
The rise of connected vehicles is also changing the role of artificial intelligence in logistics.
AI systems require large volumes of reliable data.
Connected commercial vehicles provide information about actual transportation activity, including routes, mileage, trip frequency and vehicle utilization.
That data can potentially support applications such as:
- Demand forecasting
- Route optimization
- Predictive maintenance
- Fleet utilization
- Delivery-time prediction
- Warehouse planning
- Capacity management
- Fuel optimization
Geotab itself describes its platform as providing connected operations, telematics and AI-powered insights. Its supply-chain analysis was conducted by Altitude by Geotab, the company’s research and insights division.
The broader opportunity is to move from simply tracking freight to predicting how freight networks will behave.
That transition could become increasingly important as supply chains become more complex.
Regional vs. Long-Haul Trucking
| Factor | Regional trucking | Long-haul trucking |
|---|---|---|
| Typical role | Connects distribution centers with nearby markets | Connects distant production and distribution locations |
| Current Geotab signal | Trips +3.8%; VMT +5.4% | Relatively steady |
| Route length | Generally shorter | Generally longer |
| Key focus | Delivery density and route efficiency | Network capacity and long-distance utilization |
| Warehouse relationship | Closely tied to regional distribution | Connects major hubs |
| Technology priorities | Route optimization and last-mile visibility | Fleet utilization and network planning |
| Supply-chain role | Closer-to-market distribution | National freight backbone |
The Geotab findings show that regional growth can occur without a corresponding contraction in long-haul activity.
Related History or Comparable Technologies
The concept of regional distribution is not new.
U.S. companies have long used distribution centers to consolidate inventory and serve specific geographic markets.
What is changing is the amount of data available to manage those networks.
Earlier supply-chain systems relied heavily on historical sales, warehouse records and transportation schedules.
Today’s connected-vehicle systems can add real-world information about what is actually happening on roads.
The Federal Highway Administration has long recognized the importance of regional freight networks and distribution centers in U.S. logistics planning. Its freight-planning research describes how regional distribution centers connect international imports, domestic suppliers and local markets through combinations of truck, rail and other transportation modes.
The newer development is the ability to monitor these networks at much greater scale.
Geotab’s analysis covers more than six million connected vehicles and examines activity across interstate corridors, cities and ports.
That creates the possibility of a more dynamic supply-chain management model.
Instead of designing a network once and adjusting it periodically, companies can continuously monitor transportation patterns and make changes as demand shifts.
What Happens Next
The next phase of the US supply chain 2026 story will be about whether the regional freight pattern continues.
Geotab says its report will be published on a recurring basis, creating a framework for tracking supply-chain trends across future quarters.
Several indicators will be worth watching.
Regional truck activity
If regional trips and VMT continue increasing, it could provide additional evidence that freight activity is becoming more concentrated around end markets.
Long-haul activity
The long-haul network remains the backbone of U.S. freight.
A significant decline would tell a very different story from the current data, while continued stability would reinforce the idea that regional and long-haul networks are operating together.
Last-mile miles per trip
The relationship between delivery volume and miles per trip will be particularly important.
More deliveries combined with shorter routes could indicate increasing delivery density and network optimization.
Hub-and-spoke utilization
Geotab’s 84.3% utilization figure provides a useful baseline for monitoring how efficiently distribution networks are using available capacity.
Port-to-rail activity
The Los Angeles/Long Beach findings also make intermodal transportation worth watching.
If rail continues absorbing incremental port freight without a proportional increase in drayage truck activity, transportation planners may have another indicator of changing modal balance.
Conclusion
The US supply chain 2026 story is increasingly visible in the movement of trucks themselves.
Geotab’s latest analysis shows regional truck trips increasing 3.8% and regional vehicle miles rising 5.4% over three quarters, while long-haul activity remained relatively steady.
At the same time, last-mile delivery volumes increased across the four cities studied while miles per trip declined, pointing to denser local delivery networks.
The data does not mean America is abandoning long-haul freight.
Instead, it suggests the U.S. supply chain is becoming more layered, with long-haul transportation continuing to connect major freight hubs while regional and last-mile networks handle increasing activity closer to consumers.
For logistics companies, that creates a growing need for better route optimization, warehouse planning and real-time freight visibility.
For supply-chain managers, connected-vehicle data offers another way to understand what is happening before changes become obvious in traditional economic statistics.
The next quarterly reports will reveal whether today’s regional freight growth is a temporary movement or part of a longer-term transformation in the way goods move across America.
FAQ
1. What does the US supply chain 2026 data show?
Geotab’s latest analysis found that regional truck trips increased 3.8% and regional vehicle miles traveled increased 5.4% across Q4 2025 through Q2 2026, while long-haul activity remained relatively steady.
2. Is regional trucking replacing long-haul trucking?
The Geotab data does not show that. Long-haul trucking remained relatively steady while regional activity increased. The two transportation models continue to serve different parts of the freight network.
3. Why is regional trucking growing?
Geotab says the regional increase signals more demand and inventory activity closer to end markets. The data does not establish one single cause for the increase.
4. What is happening with last-mile delivery?
Geotab found that door-to-door trip volumes increased from Q4 2025 across all four cities studied, while miles per trip declined.
5. How important are trucks to the U.S. supply chain?
According to FHWA’s 2023 freight data, trucks carried 65% of U.S. domestic freight by weight and 72% by value.
6. How can connected vehicles help supply-chain management?
Connected vehicles can provide data about real-world freight movement, including trip volumes, mileage, routes and utilization. Companies can use such information to improve visibility, planning and operational analysis.
7. What does regionalization mean for warehouses?
Greater regional freight activity can increase the importance of strategically located distribution centers because warehouses act as transition points between long-haul transportation and local or regional delivery networks.
8. Can AI improve supply-chain visibility?
AI can analyze large volumes of transportation data to identify patterns and support applications such as forecasting, route optimization, maintenance and capacity planning. The effectiveness of these applications depends on data quality, system design and operational implementation.
