Nvidia stock just got a massive vote of confidence from Wall Street’s most influential tech analyst as Wedbush’s Dan Ives set a $250 base-case price target for the end of 2026, representing a 33 percent gain from current levels around $187. Even more aggressively, Ives established a bull-case scenario at $275, a 51.9 percent upside that would push Nvidia’s market capitalization beyond $5 trillion. The timing couldn’t be better. Nvidia dominated financial headlines throughout 2025 with product launches, earnings beats, and AI partnerships that reinforced its position as the undisputed infrastructure backbone powering the global artificial intelligence revolution.
The conviction behind these targets reflects Ives’s belief that Mr. Market still fundamentally underestimates how long and how massive the AI buildout will be. During an interview with Yahoo Finance, Ives argued that earnings estimates for Nvidia remain “significantly low” because analysts haven’t fully modeled the company’s dominance across every part of the AI stack, from training to inference to real-world deployment. He projects Nvidia will achieve 15 to 20 percent earnings growth minimum through 2026, a conservative estimate given how only 3 percent of U.S. companies have seriously deployed AI so far.
Nvidia Stock 2025 Performance Shows AI Demand Remains Unstoppable
Nvidia’s 2025 trajectory validated ev
ery bull thesis from the previous year. The stock delivered approximately 40 percent gains despite multiple pullbacks triggered by geopolitical tensions, regulatory concerns about chip exports to China, and periodic panic about AI spending slowdowns that never actually materialized. From 2024 to 2025, Nvidia surged past a $3 trillion market cap according to S&P Global, then later exceeded $4 trillion, making it worth 50 times more than it was in late 2021.
The wealth creation has been staggering. A $10,000 investment in Nvidia just three years ago would be worth approximately $123,000 today, representing a 1,132 percent gain that transformed regular investors into millionaires. Those returns aren’t lottery-ticket speculation. They reflect systematic dominance in the most important technology shift since the internet’s commercialization in the 1990s.
Third-quarter fiscal 2025 results demonstrated this dominance with brutal clarity. Nvidia reported record revenue of $57.01 billion, up 66 percent year over year. The data center division alone generated $51.2 billion, representing 93 percent growth as hyperscalers, enterprises, and governments raced to secure GPU capacity for AI infrastructure buildouts. Net profit margins exceeded 50 percent. Gross margins held near 70 percent, making Nvidia one of the most financially efficient companies in the entire technology sector.
The Tech Marketet has covered extensively how Nvidia’s margins reflect genuine competitive moats rather than temporary pricing power, creating sustainable profitability that justifies premium valuations.
Fiscal year 2025 earnings tell an even more dramatic story when you examine the trajectory. January 2022 represented the baseline year before AI earnings materialized, with Nvidia posting $9.8 billion. January 2023 saw earnings collapse to $4.4 billion, down 55 percent year over year as gaming demand softened ahead of the AI boom. January 2024 marked the inflection point with $29.8 billion, up 581 percent. January 2025 showed scale kicking in at $72.9 billion, up 145 percent with margins expanding at breakneck pace. Trailing 12-month earnings now sit at $99.2 billion, representing run-rate performance that felt virtually impossible just two years ago.
Why Dan Ives Believes Nvidia Stock Remains Undervalued Despite the Rally
Ives’s $250 base case and $275 bull case rest on several structural factors that Wall Street continues underestimating. First, enterprise AI spending is shifting from experimentation to budgeting. Corporations aren’t running proof-of-concept projects anymore. They’re allocating multi-year capital expenditure budgets for infrastructure that supports business-critical AI applications across operations, customer service, product development, and strategic planning.
Goldman Sachs estimates that AI companies could invest north of $500 billion in 2026 alone. That projection keeps getting revised upward as capital expenditures linked to AI infrastructure rise faster than forecasts. Investors splitting hairs about quarterly market pullbacks missed how systematically spending estimates have increased. What analysts thought would be peak AI investment in 2025 now appears to be early-stage deployment with much larger spending ahead.
Second, geopolitical shifts are creating massive new demand vectors. Ives points specifically to the United States regaining a decisive technological lead over China for the first time in decades. That advantage stems largely from advanced AI capabilities powered by Nvidia hardware that China cannot replicate under current export restrictions. As U.S.-China technology competition intensifies, government and defense spending on AI infrastructure will supplement already-massive private sector investments.
Ives also sees potential for China reopening to Nvidia exports as a significant catalyst not yet priced into current valuations. While export restrictions on advanced H20 chips created a $5.5 billion charge early in 2025, trade dynamics evolve constantly. Any relaxation of restrictions would unlock massive demand from Chinese cloud providers, enterprises, and research institutions desperate for compute capacity to remain competitive with U.S. and European AI development.
Third, Nvidia sits upstream of every AI participant. Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google must purchase Nvidia GPUs to build the infrastructure that supports OpenAI, Anthropic, and countless other AI companies. Those companies’ success depends entirely on Nvidia capacity. Enterprises deploying AI internally require either hyperscaler cloud services (ultimately backed by Nvidia hardware) or on-premise Nvidia systems. There’s no escape velocity from Nvidia dependency anywhere in the AI stack currently.
Fourth, the company is expanding beyond pure hardware into software and platform services that create recurring, high-margin revenue streams. CUDA remains the dominant framework for AI development, giving Nvidia software lock-in that reinforces hardware advantages. Partnerships with Toyota on automotive AI, expansion into healthcare AI, and growing presence in industrial automation and robotics create diversified revenue sources less vulnerable to data center cyclicality.
How Nvidia Stock Valuation Compares to Historical Tech Giants
At 36 times forward earnings, Nvidia trades at premiums that make value investors nervous. But context matters. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta all commanded similar multiples during their infrastructure buildout phases when market-leading products generated massive TAM expansion. Nvidia’s current position resembles Amazon Web Services in 2012 or Google’s ad platform in 2006 rather than mature cash-cow tech businesses.
Analyst consensus ratings reflect overwhelming bullishness despite the premium valuation. Of 48 analysts covering Nvidia stock, 44 rate it Strong Buy, while just two suggest Moderate Buy. Zero analysts currently rate Nvidia Hold or Sell. The average 12-month price target sits around $210, with projections ranging from $100 on the low end to $275 on Ives’s bull case.
That bull-case scenario implies Nvidia could reach approximately 40 times forward earnings if revenue growth accelerates beyond current estimates. Given Wall Street projects 48 percent revenue growth for fiscal 2026, multiple expansion from 36x to 40x would be modest compared to growth rates. The stock would remain cheaper on a PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth) basis than many slower-growing mega-cap tech names.
Conservative investors should note significant downside risks that could derail the bull thesis. Competition from AMD, Intel, and custom silicon initiatives by hyperscalers could erode Nvidia’s market share over time. AI spending could slow if economic recession reduces corporate capital expenditure budgets. Regulatory restrictions on chip exports could expand rather than relax, closing off international markets. Valuation compression from 36x to 25x forward earnings would trigger 30 percent stock declines even if earnings growth remains strong.
What Nvidia Stock Needs to Hit $250 by End of 2026
Achieving Ives’s $250 base case requires several conditions playing out favorably over the next 12 to 18 months. First, fiscal 2026 revenue needs to reach or exceed the $170 billion target management has guided toward, representing 30 percent growth over fiscal 2025’s $130.5 billion. That’s achievable given third-quarter momentum and visibility into hyperscaler capital expenditure budgets.
Second, gross margins must hold near current 70 percent levels despite rising competition and potential price pressures. Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture launching in 2025 provides performance-per-watt advantages that justify premium pricing. But maintaining margin discipline as volumes scale and competitors improve products requires continued technological leadership.
Third, the company needs to avoid major negative catalysts like expanded export restrictions, antitrust actions, or supply chain disruptions affecting Blackwell production ramps. Nvidia invested $3.2 billion in capital expenditures during fiscal 2025, expanding manufacturing capacity and AI infrastructure. That capex spiked over 200 percent year over year to meet hyperscaler demand, creating execution risk if ramps disappoint.
Fourth, investor sentiment toward AI must remain positive. If markets decide AI is overhyped despite evidence of enterprise adoption and measurable ROI, all AI-exposed stocks will suffer multiple compression regardless of fundamentals. Nvidia can’t control broader market narratives, making this factor the most unpredictable.
The bull case for $275 requires everything above plus additional catalysts like China market reopening, accelerated enterprise AI adoption beyond current projections, or Nvidia successfully monetizing software and services at scale. Those scenarios aren’t priced into base cases but represent realistic upside if execution remains flawless.
Where Nvidia Stock Could Be by 2030 If AI Revolution Continues
Looking beyond 2026, long-term projections become increasingly speculative but reveal the magnitude of potential returns if Nvidia sustains leadership through the decade. The company sees annual data center capital expenditures rising from $600 billion in 2025 to $3 trillion or $4 trillion by 2030. That implies 38 percent compound annual growth rate at the low end.
If Nvidia captures even 20 percent market share of that spending (a conservative assumption given current 80+ percent share in AI training GPUs), it would generate $600 billion to $800 billion in annual revenue by 2030. At 50 percent net margins, that’s $300 billion to $400 billion in earnings. Apply a 25x multiple (reflecting market maturation), and you arrive at $7.5 trillion to $10 trillion market cap.
Those numbers sound absurd until you remember that Apple reached $3 trillion selling consumer electronics and services. Nvidia would reach similar scale by providing the fundamental infrastructure enabling the fourth industrial revolution. The entire global economy increasingly depends on AI for productivity gains, competitive advantage, and problem-solving capabilities that weren’t possible without advanced compute.
Conservative long-term models assuming slower growth and multiple compression still project Nvidia reaching $300 to $400 per share by 2030, representing 60 to 115 percent gains from current levels. That’s respectable for a mega-cap name already valued over $4 trillion. More optimistic scenarios that assume Nvidia maintains dominance and AI adoption accelerates beyond current forecasts suggest $500+ per share isn’t impossible.
The Shift That Makes Nvidia Stock More Than a Trade
Nvidia stock has transformed from a momentum play into a strategic long-term holding as the company’s role in AI infrastructure becomes irreplaceable. The 2025 performance validated that this isn’t a bubble destined to pop when hype fades. Enterprise AI spending is budget
ed, contracted, and visible years forward. Hyperscalers have announced multi-year infrastructure plans requiring GPU capacity Nvidia is uniquely positioned to supply.
Understanding why Dan Ives and other analysts remain bullish despite Nvidia’s massive run requires recognizing that the AI revolution is in its earliest stages, not late-cycle euphoria. Only 3 percent of U.S. companies have deployed AI seriously. International markets lag even further behind. The technology shift comparable to cloud computing in 2010 or internet commercialization in 1995 is just beginning, with decades of implementation ahead.
Organizations watching Nvidia’s trajectory will analyze whether the company can maintain technological leadership as competitors improve products, whether hyperscaler custom silicon efforts materially reduce Nvidia dependency, and whether AI delivers enough economic value to justify the trillions being invested. Those answers will determine if $250 by 2026 proves conservative or overly optimistic.
Quick Answers to What Everyone’s Asking
Why is Nvidia stock rising right now?
Nvidia stock is rising because of strong AI demand, bullish analyst price targets (Dan Ives’s $250 base case for end of 2026), and continued dominance in data center GPUs. Third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue reached record $57.01 billion, up 66 percent year over year, with the data center division generating $51.2 billion representing 93 percent growth. Margins remain exceptional at 70 percent gross and 50+ percent net.
What is Nvidia’s 2026 price target?
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives set a $250 base-case target by end of 2026 (33 percent upside from ~$187) and $275 bull case (51.9 percent upside). The average analyst price target sits around $210 with projections ranging from $100 low to $275 high. Of 48 analysts covering Nvidia, 44 rate it Strong Buy.
Is Nvidia stock overvalued?
At 36 times forward earnings, Nvidia trades at premium valuations but many analysts argue it’s undervalued relative to its AI infrastructure role and earnings growth potential. Wall Street projects 48 percent revenue growth for fiscal 2026. The stock’s PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth) remains reasonable compared to slower-growing mega-cap tech companies.
What risks could impact Nvidia stock?
Major risks include AI spending slowdowns if recession reduces corporate capital expenditures, competition from AMD/Intel/custom silicon eroding market share, expanded chip export restrictions closing international markets, antitrust regulatory actions, supply chain disruptions affecting Blackwell production ramps, and valuation compression if investor sentiment toward AI turns negative.
Is Nvidia still an AI leader?
Yes. Nvidia holds 80+ percent market share in AI training GPUs and dominates inference hardware. The company sits upstream of every AI participant since hyperscalers, enterprises, and governments must purchase Nvidia GPUs to build infrastructure. CUDA software creates lock-in effects that reinforce hardware advantages. No competitor currently offers comparable performance-per-watt or ecosystem maturity.
Should I buy Nvidia stock now?
That depends on your risk tolerance and investment timeline. Growth-oriented investors with long time horizons may view current levels as attractive given AI buildout visibility through 2030. Conservative investors concerned about 36x forward earnings valuations might wait for pullbacks or dollar-cost average into positions. Nvidia works best as part of diversified portfolios rather than concentrated bets.
What could make Nvidia reach $250 by 2026?
Nvidia needs to achieve fiscal 2026 revenue of $170 billion (30 percent growth), maintain 70 percent gross margins despite competition, avoid major negative catalysts like expanded export restrictions or supply disruptions, and benefit from sustained positive investor sentiment toward AI. Additional catalysts include China market reopening or accelerated enterprise AI adoption beyond current projections.
Where will Nvidia stock be in 2030?
Long-term projections suggest $300 to $500+ per share by 2030 if Nvidia maintains AI leadership and data center capex rises from $600 billion in 2025 to $3-4 trillion by 2030 as the company projects. Conservative models assuming slower growth and multiple compression still project $300 to $400, representing 60 to 115 percent gains. More optimistic scenarios suggest $500+ isn’t impossible if AI adoption accelerates.
Sources :
- Yahoo Finance: Nvidia dominated headlines in 2025
- TipRanks: Nvidia base case $250 by end 2026
- TheStreet: Popular analyst sets bold 2026 price target
